Watford Borough Council

Five Year Housing supply assessment as at 31 March 2012

The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published on 27 March 2012 and came into force with immediate effect, superseding previous guidance such as Planning Policy Statement 3. There remains a requirement to assess and demonstrate a five year housing supply. Within Paragraph 47, it states that local planning authorities should:

identify and update annually a supply of specific deliverable sites sufficient to provide five years worth of housing against their housing requirements with an additional buffer of 5% (moved forward from later in the plan period) to ensure choice and competition in the market for land. Where there has been a record of persistent under delivery of housing, local planning authorities should increase the buffer to 20% (moved forward from later in the plan period) to provide a realistic prospect of achieving the planned supply…’. It is noted that ‘to be considered deliverable, sites should be available now, offer a suitable location for development now, and be achievable with a realistic prospect that housing will be delivered within five years and in particular that development of the site is viable. Sites with planning permission should be considered deliverable until permission expires, unless there is clear evidence that schemes will not be implemented within five years, for example they will not be viable, there is no longer a demand for the type of units or sites have long term phasing plans’.

The method used for assessing when deliverability of each permission or site is likely to come forward is based on the criteria above, taking into account such factors as whether the development has started, whether planning permissions are full or outline and when they will expire, discussions with Development Control or developers on progress or when/if likely to proceed. Monitoring data also shows that, historically, non-implementation rates, known as slippage, of planning applications has been very low. As Watford does not have a record of persistent under-delivery of housing (see housing trajectory graphs or tables for housing completions in previous years), there is a requirement for a buffer of 5% rather than 20%.

The first year of the trajectory period, looking forward is 2012/13, which is the current year during which the AMR 2012 is compiled, and the expected number of dwellings likely to be completed has been identified as 367, the majority of which are developments already under construction.
The current year is not included as part of the five year assessment, which covers the following five years between 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2018. Sites included in the five year assessment are a combination of sites with planning permission that are under construction; sites with unimplemented planning permissions; allocated housing sites (only those likely to proceed); and other sites identified for housing since adoption of the existing local Plan WDP 2000.

We have calculated both a five year assessment against the East of England Plan target period for Watford, valid during the monitoring year 2011/12, and also against the housing requirement contained in our Core Strategy.

• The East of England Plan requirement was 5,200 dwellings over 20 years from 2001-2021, being 260 dwellings per annum. The same annual target of 260 has been extended to 2028 (260*27=7,020) in order to provide the required 15 year trajectory period, equating to 7,020 dwellings by 2028.
• Taking into account the total completions of 3,836 units between 2001/2-2011/12, this equates to 3,184 units remaining to be achieved and a residual annual requirement of 199 dwellings (7,020-3,836=3,184/16=199). Therefore, this corresponds to a five year housing requirement of 995 (y) dwellings (199*5=995).
• The number of projected completions between 2013/14-2017/18 has been identified as 1,178 (x).
• The five year land supply is calculated as (x/y) *100. Under the East of England Plan and the period to 2028, Watford’s 5 year land supply is (1,178/995)*100=118.4%.

However, it is the Government’s policy to revoke existing regional strategies outside London; the first stage took effect when the Localism Act became law on the 15 November 2011 and secondary legislation to abolish existing regional strategies including the East of England Plan is being progressed. We have also considered a five year housing assessment with regard to our Core Strategy, which is due to be adopted in January 2013. 

• The Core Strategy covers the period 2006-07 to 2030-31, where we are seeking 6,500 dwellings over 25 years.
• Taking into account the total completions of 2,430 units between 2006/07 and 2011/12, this equates to 4,070 units remaining to be achieved and a residual annual requirement of 214 dwellings for the remaining period (6500-2430=4,070/19=214). This corresponds to a five year housing requirement of 1,070 (y) dwellings (214*5=1,070).
• The number of projected completions between 2013/14-2017/18 has been identified as 1,178 (x).
• The five year land supply is calculated as (x/y) *100. With regard to the Core Strategy, covering the period 2006-07 to 2030-31, Watford’s 5 year land supply is (1,178/1,070)*100=110.1%.

Both the five year supply figures calculated are above the National Planning Policy Framework requirement of 105%.

Additional sites may come forward – sites are being assessed and will be published for consultation as part of the Site Specific Allocations DPD process. The results of the consultation will then be reviewed before any allocation of sites. Planning applications will be considered and determined having regard to the NPPF, Development Plan policies and other material considerations.

A site specific list of all the planning permissions and sites contained in the full trajectory listing, including the five year assessment detailing all housing commitments is available online to download or from the Planning Policy team (e-mail strategy@watford.gov.uk).

Commercial & industrial floor space in Watford

Source: Commercial and industrial floorspace and rateable value statistics (April 2008 revaluation).  Crown Copyright. Available on website www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/